These Six "Clues" Tell Us "What Comes Next" for the Market

I spent 22 years as a newspaper, magazine and broadcast reporter – most of it in business news. But like most first-time reporters, I started out on the “cops/courts/crime” beat — covering law enforcement and watching how great police detectives cracked big cases.

I saw how the great investigators walked into a crime scene … sort of took in the “big picture” … then scoped out the crucial “clues” they’d need to crack the case.

What I do here at Stock Picker’s Corner (SPC) — helping you find and cash in on great investments – are a lot like being a financial markets detective. And, honestly, when I look at some of the trading strategies, bad ideas or outright scams being peddled these days, parts of the financial markets can look a lot like a crime scene.

But you don’t have to play victim …

Just keep your eyes (and your mind) open. Think for yourself. Watch for clues. Understand what those clues add up to. Ignore “The Noise” of “The Crowd.” And (in terms of opportunities) go where the clues take you.

Call it an offshoot of this core belief: Find best storylines and you’ll find the best stocks — or best assets.

As my new ebook proves, investors are either Wealth Builders or Wealth Killers — and most investors are the latter and are doomed, I’m sad to say.

And Wealth Builders like you and me understand that those “best storylines” are built from a series of those “clues.”

In this particular instance, those clues are building toward a single conclusion: that silver and gold prices are headed higher.

Maybe tomorrow … or next month … or next quarter.

But they will head higher. And probably lots higher.

So you want to own both. In fact, you need to own both — to make money and to protect yourself from the fallout from the catalysts that send them higher.

Like that detective who walked into a fresh crime scene, I’ve learned how to spot those clues in real time. I scan the daily headlines, read reports, talk to specialists and watch prices and values. The clues “light up” — like a neon sign. I compare today’s clues with those I spotted yesterday, last month, last year – and even in history books. We feed those clues into our financial models. Taken together, some of those clues become trends — and those trends become those aforementioned “storylines.” That’s the evidence we need to identify big opportunities – while also eliminating the risky traps that abound.

Take a look at some of the clues that have “lit up” for me over the past few weeks … because they all point in that one direction.

A Path to Those “Debt Killers”

Finding those “best storylines” is crucial. And we’ve chosen well for you. So well, in fact, that as we get closer to our third year here, we’re watching as these storylines advance — and intersect.

Initially, silver and gold were a beneficiary of the Long-Term Commodities Supply Shortfall — an Econ 101 reality in which key “critical materials” like silver, copper, titanium, nickel and rare-earth metals were in short supply.

Thanks to two other storylines — the New Cold War and the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Era — demand for those minerals continues to grow.

But supplies were already lean — thanks to decades of underinvestment in new mines and an increasingly sticky regulatory morass in developed economies like America. And the Deglobalization storyline — where isolationist sentiments are advancing and the world economy is breaking back into trading blocs — means countries that once bought those minerals in foreign markets must now supply them at home. That’s exacerbating the already serious supply squeeze.

And that demand/supply imbalance is also being supercharged by regular folks like you and me thanks to yet one more storyline — the Middle Class Squeeze and the Death of the American Dream. There’s more individual investor interest in owning silver and gold than we’ve seen in years – as evidenced by the success that retailer Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) has had peddling silver and gold coins and bars.

And those “clues” I keep seeing tell us we’re on the right track with silver and gold.

Let’s run through those clues … one at a time.

Clue No. 1: U.S. Debt Exceeds GDP

Silver/Gold Outlook: Bullish

America’s national debt now exceeds the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time since World War II.

U.S. public debt was $31.27 trillion at the end of April — just above U.S. GDP of $31.22 trillion, says a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CFRB), a think tank that keys on fiscal issues.

“Outside of a brief period early in the COVID-19 pandemic — when GDP temporarily crashed — debt only exceeded GDP for two years at the end of World War II,” the CFRB said.

(Although it is nonpartisan, the CFRB does favor lower deficits.)

Though WWII and today share the high debt-to-GDP ratio, the two eras are fundamentally different.

In World War II, federal debt soared to a peak of around 119% of GDP as America waged (and financed) a global war — even supplying Britain and Russia with airplanes, tanks, vehicles and other supplies as part of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “Lend-Lease” program (and the reconstruction that followed). Today’s debt has soared thanks to slashed taxes, repeated crisis spending and the growing burden of Social Security and Medicare as the U.S. population ages, says CBS News and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

With stocks and other investments, we know it’s “what comes next” that matters most. And the biggest difference between the two eras isn’t why debt rose; it’s what happened next.

That brings us to our next “clue” — a “what-comes-next” extension of the first one.

Clue 2: U.S. Debt Will Explode

Silver/Gold Outlook: Long-Term Bullish

Another report I saw last week says U.S. public debt is projected to hit $53 trillion by 2036.

In both clues, we’re using “public debt” — which is U.S. debt held outside the federal government — by American households, banks and other financial institutions, pension and investment funds, the U.S. Federal Reserve and investors and governments overseas.

This is the debt Washington must service in the financial markets. And it directly influences interest rates, confidence in the greenback, inflationary pressures — and even something called the “crowding-out effect,” which can ignite costs for companies and smaller borrowers, or kick them to the curb altogether.

So while public debt is currently $31.27 trillion, total federal debt is nearly $39 trillion.

And this new projection says public debt will zoom to $53 trillion by 2036 — a gain of nearly 70% over the next decade.

Here’s where it gets sticky: According to the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, nominal U.S. GDP will surge to $48 trillion during that same 10-year stretch — putting the Debt/GDP Ratio at 110%.

Projections are just that — a forecast. And, looking at other clues, I find it troubling that Washington is borrowing at an accelerating rate.

That’s backed up by another bit of research by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which said that — if you study recent history — the U.S. added $1 trillion to the debt (on average):

• Every 24 months in the 2000s.

• Every 11 months in the 2010s.

• And every five months here in the 2020s.

And this isn’t just a U.S. problem, as our next clue shows …

Clue No. 3: Global Debt is Exploding

Silver/Gold Outlook: Long-Term Bullish

When you were growing up, did you ever have a parent, an uncle, or a grandmother watch the news and exclaim: “The whole world has gone crazy.”

Well, insert that comment here.

According to the April 2026 Fiscal Monitor report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global debt is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2029 — a year earlier than expected.

Largely driven by the world’s biggest economies, “public finances are under strain from mounting spending pressures—on social needs, defense and strategic autonomy—and rising interest burdens,” the IMF report said. “The fiscal consequences of the Middle East conflict add further to these fragilities.”

Although the IMF says this in a more-institutional/more-jargon-laced manner, the conclusion is clear: something has to be done.

Taken as one, here’s why this addiction to debt matters for our “you need to own silver and gold” storyline:

• High debt → pressure to keep “real rates” negative.

• High debt → higher term premiums → weaker confidence in long‑term U.S. Treasuries.

• High debt → higher odds of currency debasement over time.

In other words, your account balance will rise — but your buying power will shrink. You'll feel the affordability squeeze.

There are two basic ways to beat this: earn market-beating returns on your stocks and other investments; and you own assets like gold and silver that won’t get inflated away.

As one longtime friend and metals expert recently told me: “This is strongly bullish in the long run. … it’s the classic “debt-supercycle endgame’ setup.”

Clue No. 4: China Silver Imports Hit Record

Silver/Gold Outlook: Long-Term Bullish

When I said most investors are “doomed” to be Wealth Killers, that wasn’t hyperbole: It’s a sad, painful fact. But it’s a treatable malady.

Most folks focus on “the now.”

• What’s moving now?

• What’s hot now?

• What’s everyone talking about now?

What they should be asking is this:

• What’s being overlooked now?

• What’s undervalued now?

• What’s going up next?

• What’s going up long-term?

And that’s especially true of gold and silver — which had one hell of a run late last year and through most of January … before hard selloffs.

Thing is, we got our readers into both — in early 2024 and the first part of 2025, back when both were still undervalued and overlooked … and before they enjoyed that hot run.

With silver, for instance, depending on when you acted on our silver research, you’re sitting on gains of 170% to 250%.

And here we are again — with silver and gold both locked in volatile trading ranges, as “FOMO” (fear of missing out) investors ignite a stock market “melt-up” by piling into the current hot stocks.

We want you to get ahead of the crowd — by investing in “what’s next.”

As the Bloomberg headline I shared shows us, the Deglobalization and Supply Shortfall storylines are playing out.

As metals dealer SD Bullion wrote in a recent market note, “gold and silver markets remain volatile in the short term, but underlying demand trends signal a much larger structure shift under way in global finance.”

I like that. And this.

“China’s record-breaking silver imports — roughly 836 tons in March alone — highlight a strategic accumulation trend that Americans would be wise to study closely,” that SD Bullion note said. “This surge is being driven not only by industrial demand (especially solar energy), but also by growing retail investment interest in tangible assets.”

And it’s not just China. A drive for “energy independence” is ramping up across Europe. And in a stealthy way here in America.

Clue No. 5: U.S. Home Foreclosures Surging

Silver/Gold Outlook: Intermediate-Term Bullish

American home foreclosures are up 26% year‑over‑year — pushed by rising taxes, ballooning insurance costs and a growing homeowner debt strain.

That last one is worth noting — because there’s a “what-comes-next” risk that folks aren’t watching closely.

U.S. household debt hit a record $18.8 trillion in the fourth quarter — driven there by rising mortgage, car loan and credit card balances. Total debt grew by $191 billion, with credit card balances hitting $1.28 trillion.

Total household debt has increased by roughly $4.6 trillion since the end of 2019. To give you a bit of scale (since we were talking Debt/GDP Ratios), that’s more than the GDP of Japan ($4.38 trillion).

Now, I grant you, that was amassed over a multi-year stretch. But it’s one heck of a lot of scratch.

And here’s that “what-comes-next” kicker: While debt levels are at all-time highs — especially for younger borrowers — delinquency rates are still moderate.

You need to beware …

Delinquencies are rising in lower-income households — which is the starting point of the “Jenga-tower” topple we’ve warned you about (and showed you how to navigate).

As “the system” (the economy and the stock and bond markets) frays, gold and silver are part of the “insurance” you absolutely must own, because:

• Household budget stress grows → Fed must eventually ease → metals benefit.

• And rising defaults → increased recession risks → metals benefit.

Clue No. 6: Berkshire’s Record War Chest

Silver/Gold Outlook: Intermediate-Term Bullish

I just saw that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) cash (and T-bill) pile hit a record $400 billion (actually, $397.4 billion … but who’s counting?) at the end of the first quarter – driven by continued stock selling by new CEO Greg Abel.

The vaunted “Buffett Indicator” is above 225%, indicating overvaluations in stocks and growing risks of a correction. Fortune said it signals that stocks are in “playing with fire” territory — and it said that on April 24, when the S&P 500 was 2.79% lower than it closed Wednesday. For a bit of extra context, that gain in eight trading days is the rough annualized equivalent of 88%.

Now, Warren Buffett famously dislikes gold (he views it as an “unproductive asset” that has no intrinsic value). But Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for 14 straight quarters — which is why I’ve labeled it as a “Next Bull Market Stock.”

And yet … this record cash hoard, too, is a “clue” that indirectly bolsters our Wealth Builder case for precious metals. It tells us that Berkshire:

• Sees valuations as stretched.

• Expects better opportunities ahead (that “Next Bull Market Stock” thesis).

• And wants options and maneuvering room in an environment whose uncertainty keeps growing.

So, yeah, it’s not a “direct” gold-and-silver signal. But it’s a flashing caution light — a “macro-stress” signal.

When the smartest money allocator in history is hoarding cash, it’s time for caution and reflection. Be careful to buy the “right stocks” – not “any” stock. If we get a sell-off, gold will outperform. And, possibly, silver, as well – if inflation and/or monetary stress is a factor.

Cash hoarding often precedes Fed rate cuts. Gold loves that – especially if inflationary fears are rising and general liquidity increases.

This is more of an intermediate-term “clue.” But it fits in nicely with the others.

So what’s it all mean?

Look, folks, I’m a “stock jockey” at heart: I believe Wealth Builders save money from their paychecks, other investments or “found money” — and invest in great businesses. We Accumulate more shares on pullbacks. And we invest long term.

I practice what I preach. When we had that historic two-day wipeout in April 2025, I bought stocks for myself and my son Joey (and I told you precisely what I bought).

Two that I got for Joey:

• Amazon.com (AMZN): Paid $170.66, now at $275 (+61%).

• Alphabet (GOOGL): Paid $144.53, now at $398 (+175%).

But the “clues” keep accumulating — clues that tell us gold and silver are next.

We like the physical metals.

But there are specific stocks we’ve brought our subscribers, too.

I just added a gold stock to our Model Portfolio on April 29 (read the full report here).

And we shared a detailed update on a top silver stock here.

I’ll have more to say soon — including a blueprint for how to build your own gold-and-silver ETF, with whatever you have to invest.

See you next time;