10 Things to Watch After the Strikes on Iran

I was a freshman at Penn State when demonstrators stormed the U.S. embassy in Iran and turned the 66 Americans there into hostages. In fact, the Nov. 4, 1979, incident took place one day after my 18^th birthday.

If you were around like me, think about the time …

The 1970s were a fun decade.

The Pittsburgh Steelers dominated the NFL. The Pittsburgh Pirates sorta book-ended the decade with World Series titles. The Cincinnati Reds were a power, too. And so were the Baltimore Orioles.

Rock-n-Roll was brilliant: You had Led Zeppelin, the Eagles, Bruce Springsteen, Aerosmith, Heart, the Rolling Stones, Boston, to name a few. And there was that bit of disco at the decade’s end (and anyone who says “disco sucked” … well, they’re embarrassed to admit they dug it … as I did).

Top flicks included Jaws, Patton, The Sting and Monty Python and the Holy Grail. The Star Wars and Godfather franchises were launched.

TV shows with staying power included All in the Family, The Waltons, The Six Million Dollar Man, The Muppet Show, MASH and Columbo.

But a nagging malaise seemed to hang over it all. The Vietnam War was finally over — but memories of the first defeat in U.S. history denuded American pride … and the First Cold War kept spooling up.

Inflation eroded our buying power: It averaged 7.4% a year for the decade — and spiked above 11% in 1974 and again in ’79. We had two recessions. And two nation-gutting energy crises.

We had the Watergate Scandal (later, during my reporting career, I got to interview former President Richard M. Nixon).

Inner-city blight took hold. And we experienced real fear about dirty water and lethal air pollution – and running out of oil.

And the capper: America dumped the “Gold Standard” in August 1971.

That was America’s emotional backdrop when 66 Americans were taken hostage by a Middle Eastern country.

Talk about the “Law of Unintended Consequences.” In its Jan. 7, 1980, issue — when it named Ayatollah Khomeini the “Man of the Year” for 1979 — it said the hostage crisis created “a surge of patriotism” and left “the American people more united than they have been on any issue in two decades.”

Two songs – “Bomb Iran” (or “Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran,” a parody of the Beach Boys “Barbara Ann”) and “Nuke Iran” (to the tune of “Duke of Earl”) ripped the radio airwaves.

Then there was the great Walter Cronkite – the dean of TV news.

Starting in January 1980, Cronkite ended each nightly news show by saying how many days the hostages had been held.

With the U.S./Israel strikes in Iran this past weekend — strikes that led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian leaders — America and Iran are squaring off anew.

And while America and Iran have struck at each other many times in the decades since the Hostage Crisis, this weekend’s “Operation Epic Fury” adds to the “New Cold War” storyline we’ve been following together since we launched Stock Picker’s Corner (SPC).

And that’s just for starters.

It puts additional power to the “Commodity Supply Shortfall,” “Deglobalization” and “Artificial Intelligence (AI) Era” storylines.

Operation Epic Fury creates risks. But it also creates opportunities.

We’re going to look at both.

And we’ll start with the 10 possible fallouts that we’re watching — and you should watch and understand, too.

Fallout No. 1: Blowback in the Gulf

This is an easy one — it’s all about geography: Much of the region sits within Iran’s reach; it’s also where Tehran’s proxies operate. Iran has already launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes. Neighboring states are bracing for a spillover. Conflict inside Iran could push civilians into Turkey, Iraq and the Caucasus. Those aforementioned “proxies” — in Iraq, Syria and Yemen — could act on their own. (News reports released late last night say Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged attacks.)

Takeaway: The vacuum created by killing of Iran’s leaders could backfire. And the United States and Israel aren’t done.

Fallout No. 2: Energy — A Sensitive Domino

Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz — a “chokepoint” for 20% of the world’s oil-and-gas flows. Any disruption—real or perceived—will ignite prices. It already looks like shipping through that corridor is being squeezed. And a spreading conflict could fan the flames further.

Takeaway: Even a short disruption on production or shipping could ignite oil prices.

Fallout No. 3: Shipping and Air Travel

Here’s where consumers and shippers feel the pain quickly. The maritime and aviation sectors react instantly to risk — because that risk is real. In 2014, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in a war zone over The Ukraine; in 1988, in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq War, the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 665, killing all 290 aboard, after mistaking the jetliner for an attacking combat jet; in January 2020, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard shot down a Ukraine International Airlines jetliner flying out of Tehran — killing all 176 on board — after mistaking the Boeing for a U.S. cruise missile. The International Maritime Bureau (IMB) says that, in 2024, there were 116 worldwide incidents involving ships — including 94 boarded, 13 boarding attempts, six hijackings and three that took fire.

Takeaway: Warfare exacerbates that risk.

Fallout No. 4: Counterstrikes on U.S. Bases

Iran has already fired back at U.S. and Israeli targets in the region. Expect Iraq, Syria and key commercial, shipping and military centers in the Persian Gulf to see increased missile and drone attacks. As we told you earlier, it won’t just be Iran firing back: Proxy militias may act autonomously. American troops may be forced into rapid-response engagements, raising the odds of escalation.

Takeaway: This is the most likely path to a wider regional war.

Fallout No. 5: Intrigue Inside Iran

Internal dynamics are volatile — and unpredictable – after the targeted killing (i.e. “assassination”) of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

And there’s more:

• Regular folks have been injured and killed — and non-military homes, schools, commercial areas were damaged. Widespread internet outages were reported, too. The IRGC may prioritize internal control over external retaliation.

• Power struggles inside the regime could result in unpredictable behavior.

Takeaway: A destabilized Iran is more dangerous than a unified one.

Fallout No. 6: Direct Threats Against America

There are a lot of ways Iran can go here:

• Terrorism via proxies or solo “bad actors.”

• Cyberattacks on U.S. water, power or telecommunications systems — or against government or financial systems.

• Putting the bullseye on U.S. diplomatic or cultural sites abroad, which authorities are already guarding against.

Takeaway: We know from the past that these are the pressure points that Iran uses when direct retaliation is too risky.

Fallout No. 7: Global Shocks

The joint U.S./Israel strike has already whipped up worries about global turmoil — especially when it comes to the “legality” of the attacks, how they could escalate and how they might escalate Iran’s plans to create nuclear weapons.

The schism between America and other countries could continue — along diplomatic, economic and military lines: Allies are already calling the situation “greatly concerning,” signaling potential splits in Western alignment. This is what we mean by “Deglobalization,” one of the key storylines we’ve all been following together.

Global investors are fleeing to safe havens like gold and other metals, U.S. Treasuries and other defensive sectors.

Emerging markets — especially those with big stakes in the energy sector — are being whipsawed.

Takeaway: We’re looking at the kind of global event that can squeeze supply chains, shock specific sectors — or entire economies – overnight.

Fallout No. 8: Turmoil Here at Home

America will experience the shock a bit differently:

1. Spiking oil prices will further fuel the inflation that’s putting the squeeze on low-income and Middle-Class Americans — and torpedo the “American Dream.” And it’s going to exacerbate the growing gap between the “haves and have-nots.”

2. Defense, cybersecurity, energy stocks may surge; silver and gold will rise; travel and consumer sectors may take a hit.

3. Expect security to tighten — at airports, big events and public locations. The New York Police Department has already sent officers to “sensitive locations” — including religious locations and cultural centers — in a bit of “just-in-case” positioning.

Takeaway: The U.S. economy becomes a battlefield for “second‑order” fallout.

Fallout No. 9: Welcome to the Whipsaw Market

As I’ve told you folks many times, investors hate uncertainty. Uncertainty unleashes emotion — usually fear. Fear triggers a “need to do something … do anything” response. That leads to Wealth Killer mistakes.

We’ll see spikes in trading (a definite Wealth Killer move).

Takeaway: We’ll likely see a continued sell-off in riskier stocks — especially the high-valuation AI Era stocks that have stumbled of late.

We’ll likely see a continued rebound in silver — which we predicted when the “other precious metal” sold off in late January and the first part of February.

That leads to the next fallout …

Fallout No. 10: The Metals Squeeze

The markets for silver and copper are already tight — geopolitical stress compounds physical scarcity. Thanks to massive global debt and sticky inflation, the metals markets have less tolerance for a supply shock than they did in 2010-2014, the last time we saw this.

Then there are specialty minerals — like titanium. With all the missiles fired and bombs dropped, U.S. weapons stocks are down – and must be replenished. It’s also a big reminder of how exposed the U.S. critical minerals supply chain is right now, the creative work that must be done and the opportunities that creates.

Takeaway: I told you that 2026 would be the year that America wins – or loses – the critical minerals war. There are big opportunities in titanium … in silver … in AI … and in defense.

And when I come back with Part II of this report later this week, I’ll show you exactly what they are.

But before we part ways, I’ll give you a head start.

Bonus Stock: Own “The Casino”

CBOE Global Markets Inc. $CBOE ( ▲ 0.04% ) , which was one of the stocks I recommended as part of my “Forecast 2026” report back on Jan. 5. From a closing price of $251.49 a share that day — to an even $305 in overnight trading last night — we’re talking about a gain of 21.3%.

The stock is up over 20% year-to-date.

Uncertainty leads to emotion, which leads to Wealth Killing trading.

If trading is to the stock market what gambling is to a casino, then why not own The Casino?

And CBOE is that casino. It’s the kind of stock to own when uncertainty spikes.

And uncertainty will be the watchword — perhaps for years to come.