Wall Street Sees a "Stock Picker's Market" for 2026 — And Beyond

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As a longtime (award-winning) business journalist, I have a special hatred for “jargon” used for jargon’s sake.

Stuff like “belief system.”

Now, I do have some strong beliefs — both personally and professionally, with some overlap between the two “halves” of my life.

On a personal level, I believe in family and friends, financial security, free markets, free speech and fair play. That’s a foundation to build on.

Here at Stock Picker’s Corner (SPC), we have strong beliefs, too. We believe in:

• The power of the individual investor.

• Self-reliance.

• Free markets.

• Independent (Contrarian) Thinking.

• Investing vs. Trading.

• Concentration vs. Diversification.

• And making time your ally – and accumulating as you go.

There are a few others, too, which I’ll get back to in a moment. But you can see that the bottom line here is our foundational belief: In short, we believe that everyday investors can strive to “beat the market.”

And we believe you can. We believe you can be true Wealth Builders.

If you take advantage of all the opportunities afforded you.

Do you have a 401(k) where you work? Max it out.

If your employer matches 50 cents on the dollar of the first 6% of your salary, that’s an instant 50% return on your money … risk-free. Couple that with the power of compounding – making time your ally – and you’ve got an instant advantage over the Wall Street pros. During my days as a defense industry reporter, that’s what the military folks I dealt with referred to as a “force multiplier” (more jargon, but the Pentagon folks love that stuff).

Financial planners and money managers might take exception with my explanation. But I intentionally super-simplified it to make a point: You must take advantage of every opportunity you can.

And you need to invest in individual stocks.

You need to be a “Stock Picker.”

Stock Pickers find the very best storylines. And then they find the companies best poised to benefit.

This is crucial. It not only spools up your Wealth Building. Just as important, it spools up your wisdom. I mean, how can you beat the market if you don’t understand how it works? And you must have “skin in the game” to learn. The stock market isn’t just the greatest invention in human history — it’s the only real-world university that pays you to learn.

And it rewards you in real time.

Here’s why I’m talking about this today.

We believe that it’s always a “stock picker’s market.”

And now some of Wall Street’s biggest investment banks see it the same way we do …

Don’t Fear the Reaper

In recent weeks, the CEOs of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS 0.00%↑ and Morgan Stanley MS 0.00%↑ each warned of a possible correction in stocks. Goldman CEO David Solomon says stocks could drop 10% to 20% in the next one to two years.

Morgan CEO Ted Pick says a pullback would be a “healthy development.”

“We should also welcome the possibility that there would be drawdowns, 10% to 15% drawdowns that are not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect,” he said.

Trouble is, I believe there are a lot of “macro-cliff-effect” candidates lurking out there – hidden by the choppy waters of uncertainty. I’m talking about the kinds of rogue waves that sink ships.

But I do like the idea of a sell-off: I’ll use the pullback to conduct some serious stock-picking — the kind of bargain hunting that includes “foundational stakes” in new-to-us stocks and “Accumulate” additions to stocks we already hold.

We’re overdue. If you look at 2023, 2024 and year-to-date here in 2025, we’re talking about compound gains of 39.4% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 72.6% for the S&P 500 and 127.8% for the Nasdaq Composite Index.

After a run like that, it’s not just a correction of 10% or a bear market of 20% that the big Wall Street investment banks are suddenly fretting about. They now concede it’s possible that we’re looking at five to 10 years of overall stock-market returns that fall below the 10% historical average.

In fact, they say it’s downright likely:

• Goldman sees long-term annual returns of about 3% for U.S. stocks – with high valuations and elevated U.S. Treasury yields as major headwinds. Even more worrisome: Goldman says there’s a 72% chance stocks lag bonds over the next decade — and a one-third chance stocks lag inflation through 2034.

• JPMorgan is slightly more optimistic — projecting annualized returns of around 6.7% for big-cap stocks over the next 10 years to 15 years.

• And Vanguard, the investment-management firm founded by John C. Bogle, is the most conservative of all: projecting 10-year returns in the range of 2.8% to 4.8% — pitiful, and not enough to stay ahead of the inflation we all know will return with a vengeance.

Understand that when they toss these numbers around, they’re talking about the broad market indices.

The alternative, of course, is to drill down, do extra research and identify specific companies that will do better than average. That’s what’s known as a “Stock Picker’s Market” — where you find, invest in and run with the very best companies.

That’s the belief system SPC is built around. So call me amused to see the Big Boys of Wall Street started adopting our philosophy. Check out this July report from Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Or how about this Bloomberg News story, which captures the key point I’m making here today: When the Going Gets Rough, Stock Pickers Get Going.

I couldn’t agree more.

The scene is being set for a classic — and long-running — stock picker’s market.

But thanks to all of our work together here, you have a great head start. Stock picking is our forte. It’s in our wheelhouse. It’s our brand.

To employ a well-known bit of management jargon (apologies), it’s our “core competency.”

The very name of our research service says what we do. It’s a kind of promise. It tells you what you can expect from us … and what you can rely on us for.

Investors who lack such beliefs … who lack a framework … or who switch strategies to “chase” each new “type” of market — well, they’re Wealth Killers.

But we’re stock pickers. We have beliefs. We have a blueprint. We’re Wealth Builders, because:

✅We find the best storylines – and then find the best stocks.

✅We invest – and never trade.

✅We play the long game – making time our ally.

✅We’re Contrarian thinkers: While others grow fearful during volatile, uncertain markets, during pullbacks or outright bear markets, we see opportunity. And we act.

✅We Accumulate our way to wealth.

✅And we play the long game — making time our ally.

It’s a true “belief system” (sorry for the jargon … it’s the last helping) — a real framework and a tangible blueprint you can build around.

And the stock picker’s market is coming to us.

We already knew that. But now even Wall Street says so.

If the market gets rocky in the weeks and months to come — and it probably will — stick with us … we’ve got a plan.

Even Wall Street says so …

See you next time.